3 Ways LAFC’s Blockbuster Move For Gareth Bale Could Backfire

SportsMoney 3 Ways LAFC’s Blockbuster Move For Gareth Bale Could Backfire Ian Nicholas Quillen Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. New! Follow this author to improve your content experience. Got it! Jun 27, 2022, 05:00am EDT | Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Gareth Bale celebrates following Wales’ victory in a 2022 FIFA World Cup Qualifier knockout round .

. . [+] play-off match against Austria in March.

Getty Images The news that Los Angeles Football Club are finalizing a deal with Welsh superstar Gareth Bale sent shockwaves through Major League Soccer and and across the sport this weekend. LAFC are already Supporters’ Shield leaders nearing the midpoint of the 2022 campaign. And even before the news of Bale’s impending free transfer ( first reported by MLSsoccer.

com’s Tom Bogert ), the club had already made a splash inking Italian defender Giorgio Chiellini. And according to reporting from The Athletic , Bale will only make about $1. 6 million for his first year under contract and won’t occupy a Designated Player roster slot.

So LAFC’s summer spree may not yet be over. But the history of these kinds of blockbuster moves in MLS tells they are far from a guaranteed success for the clubs that make them. And in some ways LAFC are making a bigger gamble on the former Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur because they’ve already been quite successful without him.

With Bale, the standards conceivably rise to MLS Cup or bust. There’s several scenarios that could disrupt Southern California’s next big soccer star from living up to expectations. Here’s 3 of the most likely ways it could go sideways.

Bale, Vela And Cherundolo Can’t Gel MORE FOR YOU WWE Extreme Rules 2021 Results: Winners, News And Notes As Roman Reigns Beats The Demon The World’s Highest-Paid Soccer Players 2021: Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo Reclaims Top Spot From PSG’s Lionel Messi The Good, Bad And Ugly From The Green Bay Packers’ Win Over The San Francisco 49ers There are parallels between Bale’s arrival in Southern California and when David Beckham became the original MLS superstar by joining the LA Galaxy in 2007. Like Beckham, Bale is joining a team that already has an established leader and fan favorite. The Galaxy’s version was US national team standout Landon Donovan, who had already won an MLS Cup with LA in 2005.

At LAFC, it’s Mexican star Carlos Vela who has been with the club since the beginning and had the most productive offensive MLS campaign in history while leading his club to the 2019 Supporters’ Shield. Donovan and Beckham clashed at first, and it wasn’t until 2010 that the two began winning major trophies in the form of two Supporters Shields and two MLS Cups. And it doesn’t necessarily appear that Bale will be in MLS — or playing anywhere — for the same extended amount of time.

That makes meshing with Vela as soon as possible even more important. Also similar to Beckham, Bale arrives at a club with a relatively inexperienced manager. Frank Yallop was the boss at the beginning of Beckham’s Galaxy tenure, and had only previously coached the San Jose Earthquakes and Canada national team.

LAFC manager Steve Cherundolo had a long playing career in the German Bundesliga, but this only his second year as a manager. His first came last year with the the Las Vegas Lights in th second-tier USL Championship. Cherundolo is about to get a crash course in managing a team with multiple veteran stars.

For LAFC’s sake, he’ll need to pass it quickly. Bale’s Focus Wanes At The Wrong Time Bale recently helped Wales qualify for only their second FIFA World Cup in national team history and first since 1958. And after becoming increasingly less of a contributor at Real Madrid in recent seasons, his MLS move partly reflects the need to play in regular games before joining his Welsh teammates in Qatar.

So LAFC can probably count on the most focused and motivated version of Bale showing up for the remainder of the 2022 MLS season, which concludes just before the World Cup begins. But the reported structure of his contract — with an 18-month player option that would give Bale a substantial raise — could be timed in a way that it gets more expensive after the Black and Gold have gotten the best from their new star. Imagine that Bale has a promising start to life at LAFC and Wales also has a relatively successful World Cup campaign, maybe reaching the second round.

Bale could be flying high and sign the player extension this winter. Then as the 2023 MLS season roles on, human nature begins to resurface in the form of a decrease in motivation for a then 33-year-old who has achieved most of what he wants out of his career. Bale had previously been rumored to be considering retirement if Wales had fallen short of qualification this month.

While Bale’s price might be a bargain in the short term, if his wages go up and his production goes down before LAFC win another trophy, it will be considered an unsuccessful investment in the longer term. Bale Performs, But LAFC Fall Short Anyway One thing that makes Bale’s arrival different from nearly every other European star to test MLS waters is that he arrives at a club that is already considered MLS Cup and Supporters’ Shield favorites. And since LAFC have already won the 2019 Shield (and also reached the 2020 Concacaf Champions League final), some might posit that success going forward would be defined only as an MLS Cup championship.

But even stars who arrive from Europe and produce at Best XI levels in MLS aren’t enough to guarantee that their teams will win anything. The salary structure and general parity make even the Supporters’ Shield title awarded to the best regular season finisher far less of a foregone conclusion year-to-year than in league winners in the top European divisions. As for MLS Cup, every team is only one bad postseason performance away from disappointment.

Consider some megastars who excelled but left MLS without silverware: David Villa scored 77 MLS goals for New York City FC across four seasons, and was named league MVP in 2016, but it wasn’t until three years after is departure that the club won its first major trophy. Wayne Rooney had 23 goals and 13 assists in a season and a half with D. C.

United but played in only two playoff matches for the Black-and-Red, losing both. Zlatan Ibrahimavic scored 52 goals in just shy of two full seasons with the LA Galaxy. Like Rooney, he also played only two games in the postseason, winning one and losing the other.

Bale is joining a better team than had anyone in that trio. But that also means his individual production will matter less in terms of his MLS legacy, and LAFCs ability to win silverware will matter more. And between the size of the 28-team MLS and the unforgiving nature of the playoffs, hoisting MLS Cup is as much about fortune as skill.

In other words, it’s entirely possible Bale performs at his current best throughout his LAFC tenure and it’s still not enough to get the team over the top. If that happens, his legacy may not be such a strong one — even if it’s undeserved. Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn .

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