How Bad Is Europe’s Energy Problem? Better Than You Think

Investing How Bad Is Europe’s Energy Problem? Better Than You Think Simon Constable Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Author | Broadcaster | Journalist | Commentator | Speaker. Following New! Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories.

Got it! Oct 18, 2022, 11:30am EDT | New! Click on the conversation bubble to join the conversation Got it! Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin MANCHESTER, UNITED KINGDOM – JANUARY 03: A gas ring on a domestic stove powered by natural gas is . . .

[+] seen alight on January 3. 2005, Manchester, England. Russia had decreased pressure in the natural gas pipeline to the Ukraine, but buckled under European pressures after growing concerns of fuel shortages in Western Europe, and began bringing the flow of gas back to normal.

The British government announced that Britain will not be affected by Russia’s decision to cut the gas supplies. (Photo Illustration by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images) Getty Images There’s a been a lot of scaremongering about Russia and its threats to turn off Europe’s energy supply this winter by conducting ‘maintenance’ on the natural gas pipeline that goes through Ukraine. But it’s a hollow threat.

So empty that it beggars belief. The reality is that the bulk of Europe’s natural gas supply (55%) comes from places other than Russia. Notably, the it a lot of liquified natural gas (40%,) which comes via the sea.

And it gets gas piped from Africa (15%. ) The rest is coming from Russia, but only a tiny amount of that remaining 45% comes through Ukraine’s pipeline, according to research by Max Pyziur’s at the Energy Policy Research Foundation Inc . Hat tip to Jeff Christian who discusses the analysis in a recent video .

It’s also interesting to note that while Europe’s natural gas production has been steadily declining since 2013, its imports from Russia dropped dramatically starting in 2020, approximately two years before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. In response, to the war, Europe’s countries upped their imports of LNG (liquified natural gas. ) Meanwhile, Europe’s storage facilities now hold ample inventories of natural gas.

That means there will be enough to get the continent through the winter. What won’t change is the elevated prices for gas. A megawatt hour of natural gas in Europe would recently fetch 113 euros ($111) up from 94 euros ($92) in mid October last year.

A year ago was long before the war started. MORE FOR YOU They Inherited Billions Upon Billions: Meet America’s Richest Heirs How Prosecco Became The World’s Most Popular Sparkling Wine: With A Name Change The Best Wedding Registry Ideas For Newlyweds However, don’t get too complacent. Europe is enjoying a delightful period of warmer than usual weather.

When or if a cold snap arrives we should expect prices to rise. And that could be a problem for Europe. If anything, Russia is likely to suffer more, as its fiscal budget is heavily funded by oil and gas revenue.

But Russia’s threats have woken the Europeans to the need to source their energy more judiciously. That will likely serve Russia poorly over the medium term as they will no longer have a ready buyer of the doorstep. Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn .

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