How Dangerous Is Covid-19 Now?

Healthcare How Dangerous Is Covid-19 Now? Robert Pearl, M. D. Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

New! Follow this author to improve your content experience. Got it! Jul 25, 2022, 04:00am EDT | New! Click on the conversation bubble to join the conversation Got it! Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin How dangerous is Covid-19 now? getty When doctors go to the doctor, they usually spend the first few minutes chatting about their personal lives and about healthcare in general. Recently, a visit to my ophthalmologist’s office led to an unexpected yet familiar conversation about second Covid-19 boosters.

The physician wasn’t sure whether he should get a fourth dose now or wait. He had read the CDC’s original guidance in March, the updated guidance in May and the newest guidance from June, and still he was perplexed. He wondered what I thought.

The more we talked, the more I understood what he was really asking me: Am I safe or am I in danger? That’s the root of most Covid-19 questions I receive from people who write in to my podcast Coronavirus: The Truth . Americans want to know how to strike a safe balance between protecting themselves and their loved ones and trying to enjoy (and get on with) their lives. For anyone feeling perplexed, here are five of the most common questions I’ve received via my podcast of late, along with answers containing relevant facts.

1. What are my chances of dying from Covid-19? BA. 5 is now the dominant Omicron subvariant in the United States, and experts are calling it the worst mutation yet because it’s “ spreading like wildfire .

” Indeed, Omicron is driving up cases. But are we under- or over-estimating the threat? MORE FOR YOU CDC: Salmonella Outbreak Has Left 279 Ill, 26 Hospitalized In 29 States Canadians End Up In ICU After Attending ‘Covid Party’ White House Mandates Pfizer Vaccines for Millions of Citizens . .

. Before the FDA Clinical or Safety Reviews Have Been Made Public There are two ways to approach the answer. The first is to ask: How likely am I to die if I get sick? Nationally, Omicron leads to 1 death per 2,300 cases or a 0.

04% case fatality rate. (Math: Divide 300 reported daily deaths by 100,000 reported case per day, but then multiply by seven because the Institute for Health Metrics and other leading research groups estimate daily infections to be at least seven times greater than reported. ) Using this yardstick, Omicron is less likely to kill you than the flu, which has a case fatality rate of roughly 0.

1% . The other approach looks at total cases. More people will get Covid-19 this year than the flu, which means more people will die from Omicron (~100,000 this year at the current rate) than from influenza (deaths range year to year from 20,000 to 60,000).

Putting these two parts together, it’s reasonable to assume your chances of dying from Covid-19 are very low, similar to the flu, provided you’ve been vaccinated and boosted. 2. Why are cases going way up but deaths aren’t? Despite another Covid-19 surge this summer, the daily death count has held relatively steady since April.

In the latest seven-day rolling average, deaths have risen only slightly (up 13% to ~350 deaths per day) but aren’t much higher than previous pandemic lows. This contrast between higher rates of infection and lower or leveled mortality can be explained biologically . In simplest terms, Omicron is the most transmissible variant yet because of mutations that help the virus elude our body’s initial defenses and to cling to our nasal entryways.

However, that same sets of mutations also make the virus less lethal . Specifically, Omicron does not multiply in lung tissue as easily as prior variants or reach other vital organs as often. Simultaneously, our antibody levels diminish each month after vaccination or previous infection, which makes us more susceptible to contracting the virus.

This has contributed to the immense jump in cases. However, our bodies are also equipped with other powerful defenses (like cellular immunity) that protect against severe disease and death. Taken together, the viral mutations along with changes in the human body, it means lots of us (including President Biden ) will become infected.

And when we do, our chances of dying remain low. 3. How concerned should I be about long Covid? Researchers estimate 10 to 30% of all Covid-19 infections result in “post-Covid condition,” better known as long Covid.

Symptoms range from the terrifying (cognitive decline, hallucinations and chronic shortness of breath) to the unusual (prolonged loss of taste or smell). One report lists 203 possible symptoms of long Covid found in 10 different organs. Beyond that info, however, there’s a lot more researchers don’t know than do.

For example, scientists can’t explain why some people experience mental fog or persistent fatigue lasting a month or more—even after a mild case—whereas others return to normal quickly. Researchers also aren’t sure why vaccination doesn’t ward off long Covid as much as they expected. A study of 13 million veterans found only a 15% reduction in cases of long Covid between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals who became infected.

Importantly, however, vaccinated individuals are three times less likely to become infected in the first place (while vaccinated-plus-boosted Americans are five times less likely), giving the most protected people a much lower chance of getting long Covid than those who remain unvaccinated. Finally, there is good news for those with lingering symptoms after recovery. Although 13.

3% of individuals experience post-Covid conditions one month after infection, only 2. 5% of infected people experience symptoms after three months, according to self-reported data collected by the CDC. 4.

Should I get a second booster now, later or not at all? Like my ophthalmologist, many people who’ve received their first booster six-plus months ago are curious whether to get the next shot now or wait until fall—that’s when Pfizer and Moderna hope to release an Omicron-specific vaccine . When my physician asked, I explained that I took my second booster knowing I’d be attending a friend’s wedding in Italy and was worried about exposure. I added that if I hadn’t planned to travel internationally, I would have waited for the next-gen vaccine.

When it comes to protection from Omicron, one size doesn’t fit all. People who’d benefit from a second booster include those at high risk because of underlying disease(s), advanced age or increased threat of exposure. Those who are vaccinated and once boosted, as well as those at low risk and limited exposure, should feel relatively safe waiting for the next generation vaccine, which will be more effective against Omicron.

Notably, that new second booster ( coming soon ) is expected to provide longer protection and better defense against whatever mutations come next. 5. How do I know if it’s safe to be social or not? Americans are willing to accept more risk these days largely because they’re sick of living under constant restrictions.

As a result, a growing number of people are removing their masks and acting in ways they would have deemed immoral and inappropriate just months ago. For these reasons, it will be harder to avoid exposure in the future. Thus, the best way to answer this question is to put yourself into one of three categories: High risk.

If you have a compromised immune system, multiple chronic diseases or are of advanced age, Covid-19 remains a great threat. To avoid hospitalization and possible death, get a booster as soon as you qualify based on CDC guidelines. Minimize risk by wearing masks and avoiding crowded spaces.

Low risk. If you are young and healthy (at the opposite end of the risk spectrum), you’re relatively safe. You have a high probability of becoming infected, but minimal chance of developing severe disease that requires hospitalization.

Everyone else. If you are in the middle, there’s no right answer. The best advice is to base day-to-day decisions on your personal risk tolerance .

If your tolerance is low, wear a mask, avoid crowds and get boosted the first day you’re eligible. If you’re comfortable with risk, test yourself at the first sign of infection and, if positive, take Paxlovid (assuming you qualify under the CDC’s latest treatment guidance ). And remember, statistically, you’re unlikely to die, so enjoy your life.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn . Check out my website or some of my other work here . Robert Pearl, M.

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