WEF’s 2024 global risk matrix: GCC a beacon of hope

Misinformation, disinformation and climate change have topped the list of risks in this year’s Global Risks Report, which was unveiled at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos last month. The WEF report, produced in partnership with Zurich Insurance Group and Marsh McLennan, draws on the views of over 1,400 global risks experts, policy-makers and industry leaders surveyed in September 2023. The survey results are regarded as a key pillar of the WEF’s Global Risks Initiative , which works to raise awareness and build consensus on the risks the world faces, in a bid to improve risk preparedness and resilience.

“The global risks report has been running over 20 years now, and it looks at taking stock of what are the global risks that are impacting countries, governments, institutions, organisations and, of course, individuals,” Renée McGowan, CEO of Marsh McLennan IMEA, tells Gulf Business in a recent interview about the report’s results. “It’s a very sophisticated report. It takes in the view of 1500 experts around the world and we take their outlook regarding specific risks in both the relative near term as well as the long term,” McGowan adds.

And chiefly, the report identifies five key risk areas, with these being: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological. Diving deeper into the report, misinformation and disinformation (technological) are regarded as the top global risk for the next two years. This amid concerns over how technologies such as AI could impact our societies, especially amid over 50 elections being held worldwide in 2024.

This is followed by concerns over extreme weather events. Societal polarisation and cyber security concerns are in third and fourth position, respectively for the next two years. But on the longer term 10-year view, respondents have markedly different views with environmental concerns taking over completely.

Here, concerns over extreme weather events, critical change to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, as well as natural resource shortages dominate the list of the top four risks. “We’ve had the hottest summer in the northern hemisphere on record, so people are feeling these impacts right now and governments are aware of them,” says McGowan. “And there’s also an increasing realisation that local communities and even countries won’t necessarily be able to mitigate these adverse weather impacts as well,” McGowan notes.

Divergent opinions Another interesting facet of this year’s report, however, is the differing views held by younger respondents versus their older counterparts. “66 per cent of respondents in the survey actually placed extreme weather as a top risk. But the differences were quite acute between younger and older demographics.

Extreme weather is particularly urgent for younger demographics but it is seen as less urgent for some older demographics. Now this obviously reflects cultural differences between demographics,” says McGowan. “It also reflects the fact that there is a healthy bias for action amongst younger generations as well.

There may be a frustration with what has been the pace of change addressing climate change over prior years and an urgency for action. There was one other different bifurcation in there as well in that extreme weather was seen as more urgent in the public sector in organisations than it was in the private sector, which was a little bit of a surprise,” McGowan notes. GCC’s place The report also took into account responses from the Middle East and GCC countries.

“If we look at the Middle East, the big countries such as the UAE and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had some similar risks aligned with the broad global risks,” says McGowan. There is also a view among respondents in the region that governments here are tackling some of the biggest issues facing the world right now, particularly when it comes to risks such as climate change. “We just had COP28 in the UAE at the end of last year, and we really got to see the significant inroads that are happening in the Middle East to accelerate climate transition to ensure a just transition, as well as the sheer amount of investment,” says McGowan.

“With all that investment and the positive direction from governments in the Middle East, we also see more social cohesion and we see more economic growth and opportunity. It’s kind of like a positive flywheel, meaning that things like social impact and polarisation, things like the alarming impact that disinformation could have are probably reduced a bit in the Middle East. “And then also things like climate change and the investment that is happening, we will likely see that parts of the Middle East will lead the way for other regions in the world,” McGowan concludes.

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