Yet another politically charged year ahead

BENGALURU: If the year that went by saw a dynamic shift in state politics, the one that we’ve just stepped into is likely to be even more frenetic on the political front. The 2024 Lok Sabha polls and its impact will dominate the course of Karnataka politics for the year. The Lok Sabha poll results may not have any direct bearing on the stability of the Congress government, which looks quite comfortable with 136 MLAs in the 224-member assembly.

However, it is likely to lead to a lot of churning within the ruling Congress. The essence of such a churning will depend on Congress’ overall performance at the Lok Sabha polls. A strong high command will ensure that state leaders work as a team, keeping aside their personal ambitions.

Otherwise, factionalism could resurface posing challenges to the party and government. The results would again put to test Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM DK Shivakumar’s leadership and indicate how people of the state have received Congress’ guarantee schemes as well as their implementation vis-a-vis BJP’s “Modi ki guarantee”. Unlike the assembly polls, the task ahead for the state Congress leaders is more difficult as the issues and voting patterns will be different.

The Lok Sabha polls will mostly revolve around Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and I. N. D.

I. A bloc’s ability to present an alternative. Well aware of the challenge, the state Congress has already got a headstart over its rivals in the candidate selection process and has been making efforts to set a narrative against the Modi government.

In the next few weeks, the party will focus on identifying the ‘winnable’ candidates, while the government will try to burnish its report card by fast-tracking the implementation of its guarantee schemes. Starting the process for implementation of the fifth guarantee — financial assistance to unemployed graduates — at the fag end of 2023 indicates that the government and the party want to tick all the boxes when it comes to its big poll promises. However, the government’s handling of drought and failure to provide assistance to farmers and the concerns over development taking a backseat due to guarantees are expected to come under scrutiny.

A potential water crisis during summer when elections are likely to be held will pose yet another challenge for the Siddaramaiah government. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah also faces the minority community appeasement charge made by the opposition, especially after his remarks about lifting the ban on wearing hijab in educational institutions. It could be an issue ahead of the polls, depending on how Congress pursues it.

Most likely the Congress leadership will persuade Siddaramaiah against wading into a no-win gamble as that would present BJP with an issue to project the Congress party as anti-Hindu. On their part, the BJP-JDS combined opposition is likely to come up with a joint strategy to halt Congress’ winning momentum in the state. For the first time, both parties are allying for the polls and a lot depends on seat-sharing as well as synergy between them at all levels, right up to the grassroots.

The regional party seems to be taking a huge risk by openly going with the BJP. If it works well, the party may see one of its leaders being a part of the Union cabinet and that would help strengthen JD(S) in the state. But, if the experiment fails, the party could find it difficult to retain its support base.

Given his political acumen, former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda would have certainly factored in the gains, risks and, more importantly, the immediate threat it faces from Congress. Gowda’s new political strategy will be put to the test. For the state BJP, which is now helmed by a young leader and former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa’s son BY Vijayendra, retaining 25 seats is an uphill task.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress and JDS that went to the polls together worked at cross-purposes. But this time, the BJP-JDS alliance is up against Congress which looks formidable in AICC president Mallikarjuna Kharge’s home state. A whisper campaign about the possibility of Kharge becoming the Prime Minister could make the task difficult for the BJP in the state.

But a lot depends on the BJP’s ability to convert Modi’s popularity into votes and the candidates connect with voters. Under Yediyurappa-Vijayendra’s leadership, the party also hopes to retain its Lingayat support base, which forms the bedrock of BJP’s strength in the state, while also wooing other communities. The BJP high command is said to have given a free hand to Vijayendra in putting in place his team.

The new team is expected to make all-out efforts to retain the party seats as they see it as an opportunity to prove their leadership. Addressing dissent within the party remains a challenge. Politics in the state is expected to see a change after the Lok Sabha polls, but what it means to the people of the state remains to be seen.

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