From 3h ago 08. 03 GMT EU tentatively agrees $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil The European Union is closing in on a deal to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel, as leaders try to clinch an agreement before Monday’s deadline. EU governments tentatively agreed on Thursday on a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil – an idea of the Group of Seven (G7) nations – with an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price, according to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters.
European Union diplomats say there’s a provisional agreement among member states to impose a price cap on Russian oil as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine. Sources quoted by news agencies say the twenty seven EU nations are poised to approve a cap of $60 a barrel – — kriszta satori (@fulelo) December 2, 2022 Reuters explains : . css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.
5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} The agreement still needs approval from all EU governments in a written procedure by Friday. Poland, which had pushed for the cap to be as low as possible, had as of Thursday evening not confirmed if it would support the deal, an EU diplomat said. EU countries have wrangled for days over the details of the price cap, which aims to slash Russia’s income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on Dec.
5. It will allow countries to continue importing Russian crude oil using Western insurance and maritime services as long as they do not pay more per barrel than the agreed limit. Energy commodities.
EU regimes tentatively agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap or price manipulation on Russian seaborn oil, with an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price. Currently WTI at $81. 00 and Brent $86.
85. pic. twitter.
com/hJQwaePu99 — Arth Ben (@ArthurBenta) December 2, 2022 Europe will begin enforcing an embargo on Russian crude shipments from Monday , so the price cap would apply to oil exported by sea by Moscow to ports around the world. As we reported yesterday, there had been fraught negotiations over where to set the cap. Estonia came under pressure to abandon its threat to veto the cap, which it feared would be set too high to hurt the Russian war machine.
Hawkish Estonia under pressure to accept higher cap on Russian oil price Read more Key events 18m ago Ofcom warns Royal Mail over poor performance 1h ago World food price prices dropped in November 2h ago John Lewis agrees £500m deal with Abrdn to build 1,000 rental homes 2h ago Russia oil cap: What the analysts say 3h ago AP: EU edges closer to $60-per-barrel Russian oil price cap 3h ago EU tentatively agrees $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil 3h ago Introduction: Pound touches highest since June Filters BETA Key events ( 7 ) EU ( 6 ) Russia ( 4 ) UK ( 4 ) US ( 3 ) Ukraine ( 3 ) 18m ago 10. 20 GMT Ofcom warns Royal Mail over poor performance Communications regulator Ofcom has warned Royal Mail that it cannot continue to blame the Covid-19 pandemic for its poor delivery performance. Following an investigation into Royal Mail’s 2021-22 delivery performance, Ofcom says it is concerned that the postal service’s performance in the early part of 2022-23 fell well short of where it should be.
Royal Mail failed to hit several key targets in the year from April 2021 to March 2022: 82% of First Class mail delivered within one working day of collection, below the target of 93%; 95. 6% of Second Clas s mail delivered within three working days of collection, against the target of 98. 5%; and completing 94.
29% of delivery routes on each day that a delivery is required, against the target of 99. 9%. The pandemic led to staff shortages at Royal Mail, as postal workers were ill or isolating.
It also led to a rise in parcel deliveries, as people turned to home shopping. Ofcom says that without the impacts of Covid-19, Royal Mail’s performance levels would have been significantly higher, and it might have met its targets. As such, it has decided not find Royal Mail in breach of its regulatory obligations for 2021-22.
But, Ofcom doesn’t expect Covid-19 to have a “continuing, significant impact” on Royal Mail’s service levels. The regulator says: . css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.
5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} Social distancing measures are no longer in place, absence levels are likely to be much less unpredictable, and parcel volumes have largely returned to pre-pandemic trends. We are concerned by the fact that Royal Mail’s performance in the early part of 2022-23 fell well short of where it should be. We believe the company has had plenty of time to learn lessons from the pandemic, and we are unlikely to consider the factors outlined above as exceptional and beyond its control in future.
🚨 Investigation update: we’ve completed our investigation into Royal Mail’s delivery performance in 2021/2022. While Covid-19 did impact services, we’ve warned the company it can no longer rely on it as an excuse for poor delivery performance. More⬇️ https://t.
co/9t4RYkSWY3 pic. twitter. com/Dgy7bhA8Lm — Ofcom (@Ofcom) December 2, 2022 26m ago 10.
11 GMT The UK’s financial regulator has warned insurers not to undervalue cars and other property when making payouts to customers. The Financial Conduct Authority says it has seen evidence that some consumers who have had their cars written off after an accident are being offered a price lower than the vehicle’s fair market value, and only improving the offer when customers complain. Sheldon Mills, Executive Director, Consumers and Competition at the FCA, says the regulator is watching firms ‘closely’ to see if they’re playing fair: .
css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} ‘When making an insurance claim, people shouldn’t need to question whether they are being offered the right amount for their written off car or other goods that they need to replace. ‘Insurance firms should offer settlements at the fair market value.
This is especially important now as people struggling with the cost of living will be hit in the pocket at precisely the time they can ill afford it. ‘We are watching the behaviour of firms closely and will act quickly to stop firms and prevent harm to consumers where we see it. ’ The rising #CostOfLiving may be putting increasing pressure on insurers to control claims costs but some of the ways that insurers may look to reduce these costs could ultimately be harmful to consumers https://t.
co/AEjnGzEHCk — Financial Conduct Authority (@TheFCA) December 2, 2022 1h ago 09. 42 GMT The pound’s recovery over the last two months should help to cool the cost of living crisis, as it will make imported goods less expensive. Simon French of Panmure Gordon explains: Covered the recent rebound in the U.
K. Pound on #r4today with @FelicityHannah – back >1. 22 GBPUSD.
Some brief observations. The most reliable buy signal for GBP is when broker notes entitled “parity looms” or “£ is EM currency” hit inbox. Far better than any fundamental analysis! — Simon French (@shjfrench) December 2, 2022 I’m only being slightly flippant as trading positioning/ sentiment is a far better predictive variable than any rate spread, or macro trend analysis when backtestedX A lot of guff gets written and spoken about the Pound.
There are some deeper trends though… — Simon French (@shjfrench) December 2, 2022 The longer term decline in its trade weighted value has three drivers. 1) U. K.
economy as a modestly shrinking % of global economy makes GBP asset ownership less essential. 2) Post GFC shrinking of UK financial sector 3) Brexit reducing expected size/ efficiency of U. K.
economy — Simon French (@shjfrench) December 2, 2022 But these factors shouldn’t totally mask news from recent weeks that has seen the #dullnessdividend support U. K. assets.
But bigger influence on GBPUSD has been signs US interest rates will rise at a slower rate in 2023. This has taken wind out of sails of v strong dollar — Simon French (@shjfrench) December 2, 2022 Sterling at this level will dampen inflation in 2023 – compared to counterfactual of Sterling’s weak value in October. This may be difficult to spot in headline data but terms of trade improvement is a big influence given large U.
K. trade deficit. Some comfort for U.
K. consumer — Simon French (@shjfrench) December 2, 2022 1h ago 09. 26 GMT World food price prices dropped in November World food prices dipped again last month, thanks to a drop in the cost of cereals, dairy and meat.
The UN’s FAO Food Price Index slipped to 135. 7 points in November, slightly lower than October’s 135. 9 – the eighth monthly fall from March’s record high.
Food commodity prices are now only 0. 3% above their levels in November 2021, before the Ukraine invasion drove up wheat prices, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reports. Photograph: UN FAO World wheat prices fell by 2.
8% in November, mostly driven by Russia rejoining the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” which allows Ukraine to export wheat by sea. Grain deal U-turn offers lesson in calling Vladimir Putin’s bluff Read more Skimmed milk prices also fell last month. The UN’s FAO says: .
css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} Whole milk powder prices dropped substantially, principally due to lower buying interest from China, only partially compensated by higher purchases by Southeast Asian countries. Prices for vegetable oils and sugar rose during November, though.
Sugar prices were lifted by “strong buying amid prevailing tight global sugar supplies due to harvest delays” in sugar-producers, and by India setting a lower sugar export quota , which tightened global supplies. Updated at 09. 34 GMT 2h ago 09.
04 GMT The Burlington Arcade in Piccadilly. Photograph: Ian Shaw/Alamy Footfall at UK shops stumbled again in November as the soaring cost-of-living crisis put consumers off Christmas spending. Total UK footfall was 13.
3% below pre-pandemic levels last month and 1. 5 percentage points worse than October, according to BRC-Sensormatic IQ data . High street footfall was down 13.
6% on November 2019, two percentage points worse than last month’s rate and worse than the three-month average decline of 12. 3%. Retail parks saw a relatively shallow decline of 4.
2% but shopping centres saw 23. 2% fewer visits than November 2019. Strikes on the railways, and the lure of watching football at home, may also have deterred shoppers.
British Retail Consortium chief executive Helen Dickinson says: . css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} “Footfall took another stumble as the cost-of-living crisis put off some consumers from visiting the shops in November.
Others opted to stay home due to the scattering of rail strikes or chose the World Cup over shopping visits. “Many big cities were particularly hard hit, with Birmingham, Bristol and Manchester all seeing the biggest drops in footfall since January. Rising inflation and low consumer confidence continue to dampen spending expectations in the run up to Christmas.
Despite retailers doing their best to keep prices as low as possible for their customers, financial concerns are trumping spending for many households. But, with three more weeks to Christmas, retailers hope that the festive spirit may still give a welcome boost to both footfall and retail sales. ” Retailers hope busy shopping period will reduce stock filling up warehouses Read more 2h ago 09.
01 GMT John Lewis agrees £500m deal with Abrdn to build 1,000 rental homes British retailer the John Lewis Partnership is to turn some of its stores and a vacant warehouse into homes via a £500 million pound joint venture with investment company abrdn . The group intends to redevelop Waitrose shops in Bromley and West Ealing, and a vacant John Lewis warehouse in Reading, as the first part of a plan to build a total of 10,000 new homes over the next decade. Here’s the story: John Lewis agrees £500m deal with Abrdn to build 1,000 rental homes Read more 2h ago 08.
48 GMT Shares in oil producers are falling this morning, pulling the UK’s blue-chip share index down from Thursday’s five-month high. BP (-3%), Harbour Energy (-2. 6%) and Shell (-2%) are the top FTSE 100 fallers, knocking the ‘Footsie’ down by 0.
5% or 37 points to 7521 points. European markets are also a little lower, ahead of the US non-farm payroll due at 1. 30pm UK time: #abertura ▪️ 02/12/2022 – 05:12 Abertura Europa 🔴 🇩🇪DAX -0,25% 14.
453,95 🔴 🇬🇧FTSE 100 -0,52% 7. 519,40 🔴 🇫🇷CAC 40 -0,48% 6. 721,28 🔴 🇪🇸IBEX -0,62% 8.
355,79 🔴 🇪🇺EuroStoxx50 -0,40% 3. 968,75 📌 https://t. co/PyAb77NjPw 🏛@alexeconomia — Professor Macro (@profmacroensina) December 2, 2022 Neil Wilson of Markets.
com says: . css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} European stocks opened lower on Friday, looking to close the week out barely changed but with US jobs data on tap later likely to drive some volatility.
The FTSE 100 dropped around half a percent in early trade, holding above 7,500, the DAX off a similar margin but above 14,400. US nonfarm payrolls are due up later. Forecast is for +200k jobs, slowing from +261K last month.
Wage growth is seen at +0. 3% and unemployment rate steady at 3. 7%.
I don’t think the pace of jobs growth will matter too much for the Fed’s December meeting, but it will offer the usual volatility. Weaker-than-expected can be seen near-term positive for risk. .
. but I think as we head into 2023 it will be clear that bad news is no longer good news for stocks. 2h ago 08.
12 GMT Russia oil cap: What the analysts say Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management . css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} The European Union tentatively agreed, subject to Poland, to set the price cap on Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel , an EU diplomat told Reuters on Thursday.
Since the price cap is lower than what has previously been bandied around, it raises the spectre of some form of Russian supply retaliation which should lend support for oil prices. However, oil prices retreated off the highs as the weaker US dollar-inspired oil rally gave way to reasons why the dollar is weakening. Specifically, weaker US economic data tempered the rally as the remarkably resilient US jobs market showed signs of cooling.
Indeed, the one glaring problem the oil market faces is the anticipated run of weaker US economic data, which is the price to pay for aggressively fighting inflation. Still, the incremental steps to living with Covid in China should continue to put more lofty floors under prices. Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor .
css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} “The European Union reportedly has cautiously agreed to a $60 price cap on Russian oil with plans to adjust the cap so that it remains at 5% below the oil price. The next step is for the proposals to be approved by all EU governments.
This week oil has been staging gains amid optimism towards the potential loosening of covid restrictions in China and the opening up of its economy at last, which could potentially unleash demand for crude oil from the world’s second largest economy. Meanwhile oil prices are trading modestly lower ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Analysts are divided on what the cartel will decide to do on 4th December.
At its October meeting, OPEC+ cut its daily oil production by 2 million barrels per day to try to boost prices. A recent media report that the cartel was considering hiking production was quickly refuted by Saudi Arabia. Given this week’s rally, perhaps the cartel will hold off from doing anything at all until China’s demand trajectory becomes clearer.
After a surge in oil prices in the first quarter following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Brent crude has been slowly pushing lower since March. However, this week has finally brought about some more bullishness. ” 3h ago 08.
07 GMT AP: EU edges closer to $60-per-barrel Russian oil price cap The European Union is edging closer to setting a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil — a highly anticipated and complex political and economic maneuver designed to keep Russia’s supplies flowing into global markets while clamping down on President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war in Ukraine — reports Associated Press . AP explains: . css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.
5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} EU nations sought to push the cap across the finish line after Poland held out to get as low a figure as possible, diplomats said Thursday. “Still waiting for white smoke from Warsaw,” said an EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks were still ongoing. The latest offer, confirmed by 3 EU diplomats, comes ahead of a deadline to set the price for discounted oil by Monday, when a European embargo on seaborne Russian crude and a ban on shipping insurance for those supplies take effect.
The diplomats also spoke on condition of anonymity because the legal process was still not completed. EU edges closer to $60-per-barrel Russian oil price cap (from @AP ) https://t. co/9q4neJY3BY — Derek Karikari (@news_scout) December 1, 2022 3h ago 08.
03 GMT EU tentatively agrees $60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil The European Union is closing in on a deal to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel, as leaders try to clinch an agreement before Monday’s deadline. EU governments tentatively agreed on Thursday on a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil – an idea of the Group of Seven (G7) nations – with an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price, according to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters. European Union diplomats say there’s a provisional agreement among member states to impose a price cap on Russian oil as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine.
Sources quoted by news agencies say the twenty seven EU nations are poised to approve a cap of $60 a barrel – — kriszta satori (@fulelo) December 2, 2022 Reuters explains : . css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} The agreement still needs approval from all EU governments in a written procedure by Friday.
Poland, which had pushed for the cap to be as low as possible, had as of Thursday evening not confirmed if it would support the deal, an EU diplomat said. EU countries have wrangled for days over the details of the price cap, which aims to slash Russia’s income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on Dec. 5.
It will allow countries to continue importing Russian crude oil using Western insurance and maritime services as long as they do not pay more per barrel than the agreed limit. Energy commodities. EU regimes tentatively agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap or price manipulation on Russian seaborn oil, with an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap at 5% below the market price.
Currently WTI at $81. 00 and Brent $86. 85.
pic. twitter. com/hJQwaePu99 — Arth Ben (@ArthurBenta) December 2, 2022 Europe will begin enforcing an embargo on Russian crude shipments from Monday , so the price cap would apply to oil exported by sea by Moscow to ports around the world.
As we reported yesterday, there had been fraught negotiations over where to set the cap. Estonia came under pressure to abandon its threat to veto the cap, which it feared would be set too high to hurt the Russian war machine. Hawkish Estonia under pressure to accept higher cap on Russian oil price Read more 3h ago 08.
02 GMT Introduction: Pound touches highest since June Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy. The pound has hit its highest level since late June, despite concerns about the UK economy, and political instability in Westminster. Sterling hit $1.
23 against the US dollar on Thursday, having bounced back from its record low of around $1. 03 set two months ago. The pound/US dollar exchange rate Photograph: Refinitiv During November, the pound climbed from $1.
1469 to around $1. 23, as international investors took an improved view of the UK economy after chancellor Jeremy Hunt ripped up the mini-budget. The other side of the coin, though, is that the dollar has weakened as traders anticipate a slowdown in US interest rate hikes: James Athey , investment director at abrdn , explains: .
css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} “Sterling has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the market’s latest attempt to price an immaculate pivot from the Fed – growth and inflation soft enough to allow an easier Fed, but not so soft that it’s evidence of real economic stress. This has seen yields coming down and the Greenback giving back some of the significant gains for the year.
Risk assets have reacted with typical, if ill-advised, gusto and so risk facing currencies like pound sterling have rallied strongly. “Of course, domestic factors have played a part, as a semblance of institutional credibility has returned to the shores of Blighty via a renewed conservatism among the Conservative Party and finally a long-overdue 75bp hike from the Bank of England. But….
Athey warns that the pound could weaken against the US dollar, as the economic outlook deteriorates: . css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} The reality is that a recession is coming, and a Fed rescue is coming less quickly than in recent years.
We see that reality as a coming cold shower for buoyant risk markets and as ever we expect the dollar to benefit from the resultant flight to quality. With the UK economic outlook being even worse, this portends an unhappy combination for sterling. The pound is still weaker than before the pandemic began (when it traded at $1.
30), and before the 2016 EU referendum (when it was worth around $1. 50). Still shockingly low pic.
twitter. com/4Yzuy32nto — Halbauron (@martinocchio) December 1, 2022 Also coming up today It’s Non-Farm Payroll day, when investors around the world learn how America’s jobs market fared last month. Economists predict that job creation slowed in November, as rising interest rates cooled the labor market.
The NFP is expected to have risen by around 200,000, down from 261,000 in October. A weak payroll report could spur the US Federal Reserve to slow its interest rate rises, as Matthew Weller of Forex. com explains: .
css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1. 5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} Friday brings the final jobs report before the FOMC’s highly-anticipated December meeting, where the central bank will decide between a fifth consecutive 75bps rate hike and a slight slowdown to a 50bps rate hike. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a 1-in-3 chance of another 75bps rate hike, with an implied two-thirds probability of a downshift to 50bps .
That said, a particularly strong or weak jobs report, especially if confirmed by the inflation data (PPI and CPI) in the first half of December, could still prompt the Fed to change its path, so expect some market volatility around the release regardless. 2/10 #NFP forecasts: Range of estimates are mostly from 170K to 240K. The average estimate is 197K and the median is 200K.
Unemployment rate: The range of estimates are between 3. 6% and 3. 8%.
There’s a relatively even split. There’s no a lot of certainty in the 3. 7% consensus.
— EventsTrader (@trader_events) December 1, 2022 The agenda 7am GMT: German trade balance for October 10am GMT: Eurozone PPI index of producer price inflation for October 11am GMT: Ireland’s Q3 GDP report 1. 30pm GMT: US Non-Farm Payroll jobs report Topics Business Business live Economics Stock markets FTSE UK cost of living crisis Reuse this content.
From: theguardian
URL: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/02/eu-cap-russian-oil-pound-rally-dollar-us-jobs-report-business-live
