The Oscars shortlist voting period has closed as of 5:00 p. m. PT.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the finalists in 10 categories — documentary feature (15), documentary short subject (15), international feature (15), makeup and hairstyling (10), sound (10), original score (15), original song (15), animated short film (15), live action short film (15), and visual effects (10) — on Thursday, Dec. 21. We expect to see multiple best picture contenders in various races, including Greta Gerwig’s meta-comedy “ Barbie ” and Christopher Nolan’s historical biopic “ Oppenheimer .
” When it comes to “Barbie,” we are forecasting six mentions for the movie, including three of its songs — “Dance the Night,” “I’m Just Ken” and “What Was I Made For,” which feels like it sealed the deal with Billie Eilish’s moving musical performance on this week’s “Saturday Night Live. ” Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories. Varying mediums and genres could find representation throughout the lists.
Animated feature contenders “The Boy and the Heron” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” should fit nicely into the original score category for its composers Joe Hisaishi and Daniel Pemberton. “Spider-Verse” is also projected to land on the sound and visual effects shortlists, which will only help its hunt for a best picture nomination. Aside from the shorts, the documentary feature race is the most unpredictable of the pending lists.
Based on conversations with voters and strategists, only about seven features feel “safe” to make the cut, some with the added help of contending in the international feature category. Those include Kaouther Ben Hania’s “Four Daughters” from Tunisia and Mstyslav Chernov’s “20 Days in Mariupol” from Ukraine. Asmae El Moudir’s “The Mother of All Lies” is predicted to make the doc list only, while Dorota Kobiela’s animated flick “The Peasants” is forecast as an alternate pick for international feature.
The Doc Branch is always reliable for a shocking omission from its reveal, as seen last year with Amazon’s “Good Night Oppy. ” Depending on what you assume are the leading candidates, I’m going out on a limb and omitting the two four-hour non-fiction movies — “Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros” from Frederick Wiseman and “Occupied City” from Steve McQueen — and perhaps more surprising, “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” from Davis Guggenheim.
The Apple TV+ intimate look into the life of Michael J. Fox is already up for a Primetime Emmy, which is more noticeable to branch members than people believe. While the delay of the ceremony to January 2024 helped the campaign, members may already feel it received its accolades and leave it off altogether.
The European voters also show their support in unexpected ways, which points to the inclusion of Lea Glob’s “Apolonia, Apolonia,” which could also become a BAFTA favorite down the line. When it comes to the international feature category, in which an unknown number of members opt in to participate, I was able to narrow the likely inclusion to 13 movies, which include the U. K.
’s “The Zone of Interest,” France’s “The Taste of Things” and Finland’s “Fallen Leaves. ” A possible late-breaking entry could come from Sudan’s “Goodbye Julia,” which had a large turnout of tastemakers hosted by executive producer Lupita Nyong’o. The artisans are as competitive as ever.
Variety exclusively reported on the 20 visual effects finalists revealed earlier this month. Of those, inclusions such as “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania,” “The Boys in the Boat” and “Nyad” turned a few heads, especially at the expense of Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” being omitted. Nonetheless, other movies seem to be rising, such as Toho’s “Godzilla: Minus One,” Sony’s “Napoleon” and Netflix’s “ Society of the Snow ,” which could have a better-than-expected day.
In the competitive sound race, the aural sensations of Neon’s “Ferrari,” Netflix’s “Maestro” and Warner Bros’ “The Color Purple” are on the more-than-likely side of things. The big incoming snub could be A24’s “The Zone of Interest” from Johnnie Burn. But don’t fret, Burn enthusiasts — he looks to be clearing the mark for his work on “Poor Things” from Yorgos Lanthimos, a stronger best picture candidate in the running.
Read the final prediction list below. Documentary Feature (15) Alternate : “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films) Documentary Short Subject (15) Alternate : “A Chocolate Lens” (Distributor TBD) International Feature (15) Alternates : “About Dry Grasses” (Turkey) Makeup and Hairstyling (10) Alternates : “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios) Sound (10) Alternate : “The Zone of Interest” (A24) Original Score (15) Alternates : “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures) — Emilie Levienaise-Farrouch; “Nyad” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat; “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.
) — Kris Bowers Original Song (15) Alternates : “Bobi Wine: The People’s President” (National Geographic) — “Everything Is Gonna Be Alright” by Bobi Wine; “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — “High Life” by John Carney and Gary Clark ; “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures) — “Camp Isn’t Home” by Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt and Mark Sonnenblick; “Wonka” (Warner Bros. ) — “A World of Your Own” by Neil Hannon, Simon Farnabay, Paul King Animated Short Film (15) Alternate : “27” Live Action Short Film (15) Alternate : “Nisei” Visual Effects (10) Alternate : “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures).
From: variety
URL: https://variety.com/2023/film/columns/final-academy-awards-shortlist-predictions-2024-1235843958/
