Russia Mulls Restarting Production Of Older Fighting Vehicles To Replace Ukraine Losses

Aerospace & Defense Russia Mulls Restarting Production Of Older Fighting Vehicles To Replace Ukraine Losses Sebastien Roblin Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. I cover international security, conflict, history and aviation. New! Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories.

Got it! Aug 31, 2022, 11:55pm EDT | New! Click on the conversation bubble to join the conversation Got it! Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin TOPSHOT – A photograph taken on May 4, 2022 shows a destroyed Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting . . .

[+] vehicle on a road near Pokrovske, eastern Ukraine amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. – The blaze in a football field-length storage building has been burning at least a day but there’s no firefighters in Temyrivka because everyone has evacuated, leaving the black smoke to rises unhurriedly. That village is in a no man’s land where the two sides are so close, in some places about 3 kms, that Ukrainian troops using binoculars can see the Russians digging at their positions.

(Photo by Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP) (Photo by DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has burned through Russia’s sprawling inventory of armored vehicles like a wildfire, forcing Moscow to scrounge up rusting, retired Soviet tanks and armored personnel carriers out of storage and refurbish them for frontline services. One category of vehicle prone to heavy losses are its tracked BMP infantry fighting vehicles. Russia’s military would like more of these so it doesn’t have to increasingly turn to less combat-capable alternatives like MT-LB general-purpose APCs or up-armored SUV-style vehicles to transport troops into battle.

In theory this could mark an opportunity for Russia to finally begin procurement of a range of next-generation infantry fighting vehicles it has touted for years: the tank-hulled T-15 Armata, the Kurganets-25 fighting vehicle and the wheeled Bumerang—or to at least replace older vehicles with newer production BMP-3s. But according to an interview posted by Russia’s TASS state news agency, the Kremlin is apparently looking into having Russian tank manufacturers resume production of “earlier generation” vehicles, likely referring to BMP-2s, a more lightly armed and armored variant introduced in the 1980s. Perhaps less surprisingly, the BMP-3 manufacturers don’t sound keen on going back to building an older, cheaper model of IFV.

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A Bizarre Mix Of Local Jets Rose To Meet It. 55 years ago, the Soviet Union revolutionized ground warfare when it trotted out its BMP infantry fighting vehicle in a Moscow parade—basically a tracked, armored vehicle intended to transport up to eight soldiers into battle, but which also packed the firepower of a light tank in the form of a 73-millimeter gun and a joystick-guided anti-tank missile launcher. Three Soviet soldiers by their Bmp-1 Mechanised Infantry Combat Vehicle, at the side of the main .

. . [+] Jalalabad to Kabul road, Tuesday, January 8, 1980.

Two of the men, all dressed in heavy padded uniforms against the cold, stand by the side, while a third sits on the top of the vehicle next to the 70 mm smooth-bore gun. A crew of three is carried with eight troops in the main compartment. As the situation in Afghanistan grows more tense, Soviet troops and armor continue to be poured into the country.

(AP Photo/Michel Lipchitz) Associated Press While Russia still fields some moderately improved first-generation BMP-1s in service, today it primarily uses two later variants with slightly improved armor and far more effective armament: the BMP-2 with a versatile rapid-firing 30-millimeter cannon, and the BMP-3, which adds a big, low-velocity 100-millimeter gun alongside a 30-millimeter cannon. Following a limited initial production run of 339 vehicles between 1987-1994, the BMP-3 reentered mass production in 2004. On paper, the addition of the 100-millimeter gun (which can also spit out anti-tank guided missiles) makes the BMP-3 impressively heavily armed for its class, posing a significant threat to entrenched/fortified infantry as well as older tanks and comparatively better-protected Western infantry fighting vehicles.

A Russian-made BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) remains idle in a military base in Caracas on . . .

[+] March 14, 2015. Venezuela begins a week and a half of military exercises on Saturday, amid rising tensions with the United States over sanctions imposed on officials accused of an opposition crackdown. About 80,000 troops were due to take part in the massive display of weaponry, as Caracas shows off its Chinese amphibian weapons, Russian-built missiles and other military hardware.

AFP PHOTO/JUAN BARRETO (Photo credit should read JUAN BARRETO/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images That said, the BMP-3’s troop-carrying ability is degraded because passengers must awkwardly dismount from a hatch on the hull roof rather than more safely and swiftly from a rear ramp. The 100-millimeter shells for the BMP-3’s big gun also pose a greater survival risk to the crew and embarked infantry if the armor is penetrated. Nonetheless, the massed firepower of Russian BMPs has proven deadly according to Ukrainian soldiers , who also use BMP-1s and -2s alongside indigenous designs like the BTR-4 with similar armament.

British ground warfare analyst Jack Watling found in interviews that the “. . .

volume of 30-mm cannon fire proved devastating in the close fight. ” But even improved BMP models have never been well armored compared to Western counterparts, and the Russian Army has lost hundreds in Ukraine. DONETSK REGION, UKRAINE – MAY 31, 2022 – A Ukrainian serviceman points at a destroyed Russian BMP-2 .

. . [+] infantry fighting vehicle by the roadside between Zelene Pole and Novopil villages, Donetsk Region, eastern Ukraine.

This photo cannot be distributed in the Russian Federation. (Photo credit should read Dmytro Smolyenko/ Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images) Future Publishing via Getty Images As of August 30, 2020 the Oryx blog has documented visual media showing well over 700 destroyed, abandoned and captured Russian military BMPs: 129 upgraded BMP-1(P) retaining original 73-millimeter guns but with improved Konkurs wire-guided missile launcher 16 newly upgraded BMP-1AMs with 30-millimeter turret taken from BTR-82A APC (see below) 366 BMP-2s with rapid-fire 30-millimeter cannons 130 BMP-3s with both a 100-millimeter and 30-millimeter cannon 13 BRM-1K reconnaissance vehicles based on BMP-1 with ground-scanning radar 59 BMPs for which the exact model couldn’t be identified Other types of armored troop carriers used by Russia have also suffered heavy losses. 185 MT-LB tracked APCs armed with 7.

62-millimeter machine guns 92 MT-LBVM tracked APCs armed with 14. 5-millimeter machine guns 119 BMD-2s, armed similarly to BMP-2s but with lighter armor used by Russian paratroopers 55 new BMD-4Ms, armed similarly to BMP-3s but with lighter armor, used by Russian paratroopers 194 BTR-82A eight-wheeled fighting vehicles with 2A72 30-millimeter cannons Of course, total losses are surely higher factoring in all the lost vehicles that haven’t been documented. Back to the future? The Kremlin’s apparent request that the Kurganmashzavod factory resume production of older BMP-2s suggests it may seek to avoid the increased cost and logistical and training burdens involved in procuring and operating heavier, more complicated BMP-3s.

However, the BMP-3’s manufacturer appears to be politely deflecting this request. In an interview with TASS, Kurganmashzavod (KMZ) CEO Petry Tyukov warned “…it must be understood that the price of such products [older-generation fighting vehicles] will be much higher than for new serial machines produced as planned, such as BMP-3 and BMD-4M. ” He hopes a “reasonable mutual understanding” can be reached with military procurers.

DONETSK, UKRAINE – FEBRUARY 10: Ukrainian Servicemen are seen training with a BMP-2 in Donetsk . . .

[+] Region, Ukraine on February 10, 2022. (Photo by Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Production of new BMP-2s ended around 2006, though upgrade kits and spare parts has continued. One likely argument is that the overhead cost of reestablishing a production line with all the old tooling would outweigh any saving achieved from producing lower unit-cost BMP-2s.

Of course, that reduced unit cost also likely amounts to much smaller profit margins for each vehicle delivered by the manufacturer too. Analyst Henry Schlottman notes that BMP-2s have been exported for over $300,000 per unit (adjusted to 2022 dollars) compared to $1. 1 million for new BMP-3s delivered to Russia in 2021.

Michael Kofman, a prominent expert on the Russian military, also suggests “older generation” vehicles could refer to focusing production lines on upgrading BMP-2s and even older BMP-1 and MT-LB vehicle. In a tweet he writes, “I suspect the main Russian shortfall in armored vehicles is not in tanks, but in IFVs. BMP-1s & MT-LBs are likely to be more plentiful in storage than anything else.

” Currently, Russian company KBP is already contracted to upgrade 540 BMP-2s with “Berezhok” turrets, adding to the original model’s armament an additional AGS-30 automatic grenade launcher, a two twin-launchers of Kornet-M anti-tank missiles, a day/night sight and a 350-horsepower UTD-23 diesel engine to compensate for increased weight. Meanwhile, additional older BMP-1s could be converted to the BMP-1AM model, which uses the 30-millimeter gun turret from the BTR-82A APC, which also includes a day/night sight. To be sure, it’s striking that the war in Ukraine is compelling the Kremlin to prioritize short-term volume-production of older types rather than introducing next-generation designs to rebuild its fighting vehicle fleet.

Those include the tank-based T-15 heavy APC , tracked Kurganets-25 and wheeled Bumerang—that have been in limbo for nearly a decade. MOSCOW, RUSSIA – MAY 4: In this handout image supplied by Host photo agency / RIA Novosti, A . .

. [+] Kurganets-25 infantry fighting vehicle with medium-category caterpillar chassis during a rehearsal of the military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of Victory in the 1941-1945 Great Patriotic War, May 4, 2015 in Moscow, Russia. The Victory Day parade commemorates the end of World War II in Europe.

(Photo by Host photo agency / RIA Novosti via Getty Images) getty That likely reflects an inability to afford the setup and units costs to begin mass production of new-generation designs, at least in timely fashion. The costs and challenges of bringing more modern designs into production are now surely aggravated by Western sanctions cutting access to many basic electrical components, requiring pricey and time-consuming workarounds. A notable feature of the newer vehicles would have been superior crew protection, particularly against mines and infantry anti-tank weapons by incorporating active protection systems, V-shaped hulls, reactive armor and warning sensors.

KYIV, UKRAINE – MAY 17: People walk by a destroyed Russian BMD-2 armoured vehicle which is part of a . . .

[+] display of Russian military hardware that has been put on the street for public viewing in central Kyiv on May 17, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Following Russia’s retreat from areas around the Ukrainian capital, signs of normal life have returned to Kyiv, with residents taking advantage of shortened curfew hours, businesses reopening, and foreign countries returning their diplomats. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images) Getty Images Instead, Kurganmashzavod is working on upgrading its BMP-3s with additional armored screens that may degrade shaped-charge warheads—a weight-increasing improvement which may be made at the expense of the BMP-3’s amphibious capabilities.

Russia’s military might also show interest in a “next-generation” BMP-3M Manul model offered with improved passenger capacity and survivability, new missiles, sensors, and an uprated engine—but without the BMP-3’s distinctive 100-millimeter gun. Follow me on Twitter . Sebastien Roblin Editorial Standards Print Reprints & Permissions.