With A ‘Done Deal’ In Switzerland, The F-35 Is Pushing Europe’s Fighter Makers Off Their Own Territory

Aerospace & Defense With A ‘Done Deal’ In Switzerland, The F-35 Is Pushing Europe’s Fighter Makers Off Their Own Territory Eric Tegler Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Following New! Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories. Got it! Sep 22, 2022, 08:30am EDT | New! Click on the conversation bubble to join the conversation Got it! Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin A U.

S. Air Force F-35A soars over the Swiss Alps during the Air2030 fighter replacement evaluation. Armasuisse The Swiss government’s signature on a final purchase contract for the F-35 and the withdrawal of a public referendum on the purchase of 36 of the jets this week signal a William Tell-esque bullseye for Lockheed Martin LMT and a real blow to Europe’s fighter aircraft manufacturers.

On Monday the Swiss Federal Armaments Office (Armasuisse) went ahead in confirming the final agreement for its $6. 2 billion acquisition of 36 F-35A Lightning IIs in spite of an ongoing initiative to force a referendum on the specific choice of F-35. The initiative had gathered enough signatures to trigger a public vote but was withdrawn on Tuesday in a surprise move by its organizers.

Explaining the withdrawal, supporters of the ‘Stop F-35A’ initiative said a nationwide vote would be meaningless as it could not change the course of the deal. Co-president of the Social Democrat party for the Canton of Zurich, Priska Seiler Graf , told Swiss public broadcaster SRF, “We are withdrawing the initiative with a heavy heart. We do not want to offer a pseudo vote where voters can’t have a real say in the actual purchase decision.

” Barring possible long-shot legal challenges it appears the Swiss F-35 buy is a fait accompli and a galvanizing win for the F-35 in one of the European countries once viewed as least likely to consider it. But the reality is that most all significant Continental powers from Poland in the east to Norway in the northwest have bought F-35s. Pending purchases by Finland, Germany and the Czech Republic further fill in the map.

Add in the nearby UK and it’s fair to say that Europe is “F-35 country”. The latest news is obviously further fuel to Lockheed Martin which has said it expects that more than 550 F-35s will be stationed in Europe by 2030. That may not be all.

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A Bizarre Mix Of Local Jets Rose To Meet It. In August, Spanish newspaper El País , reported that Spain’s Air Force leadership has recommended buying up to 80 F-35s as a near-term option to replace its aging F/A-18 Hornets and AV-8B Harriers alongside an existing purchase of additional Eurofighter Typhoons. With the retirement of Spanish Hornets and Harriers this decade rapidly approaching and delays and political infighting within the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Aircraft System (FCAS), Spain’s military leadership acknowledges the obvious; Lockheed’s Lightning II has become NATO’s “de facto” fighter, the only 5th-generation aircraft currently available.

Spain’s government was quick to brush aside El Pais’ report, asserting that it has no budget to enter into any other aircraft project in addition to FCAS. “We ruled out entering into the F-35 project. Our investment commitment is in the FCAS,” a Spanish Defense Ministry spokeswoman said.

But recent reports of conflict over the workshare, direction and development of the 5th-gen fighter that FCAS is supposed to produce, do not bode well for its realization in anything short of 15 years in the future if that. During that span the F-35 should be available and, despite its cost and shortcomings, improving. The Swiss government’s selection of the F-35 hinged on its lower projected lifetime cost than the 4th and 4.

5-generation competitors it was up against including Dassault’s Rafale and Eurofighter’s Typhoon. The F-35’s interoperability with other NATO air and ground forces has been a strong selling point that on the surface would apply only peripherally to theoretically neutral, non-NATO member Switzerland. The Swiss Left-wing coalition that successfully gathered enough signatures to trigger a referendum .

. . [+] on the choice of the F-35 as the Swiss Air Force’ next fighter ultimately dropped its effort after Armasuisse formally committed Switzerland to a final contract.

(Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images But a history of Swiss Air Force tactical training in the U. S. has been bolstered by recent history – the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Even with its strong financial ties to Russia and decades of cordial welcome to Russian oligarchs, Switzerland was as rattled by Putin’s drive for Kyiv as its EU neighbors. “Putin is unquestionably the best salesman for Western defense equipment of all time. He’s also been amazing at getting neutral countries to either join NATO or just buy NATO standard equipment,” says Richard Aboulafia, managing director of the consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory.

Others have pointed out that Russia’s cruel adventurism merely gave an additional boost to the re-capitalization of European fighter fleets already underway from 3rd and 4th to 5th generation aircraft. With Europe’s indigenous efforts late to the party including the UK-Italy Tempest program, the F-35 has been able to fill the void. “For European defense producers, this [Swiss] development accelerates what they’ve known for some time – their [fighter sales] hopes depend on the Mideast and India and other Indian Ocean clients,” Aboulafia affirms.

“With big sales to the UAE UAE and Egypt and India, that’s been fine for Dassault. Can Britain and its partners rise to the challenge with Typhoon and/or Tempest? Will Saudi Arabia come through with a second [Eurofighter] tranche? All of this matters more now, with Europe (aside from Greece) out of reach. ” Greece’s well known financial constraints may preclude an F-35 buy but the country nonetheless made a formal request to procure 20 F-35As by 2028, and Lockheed Martin acknowledged that conversations are ongoing between the company and Greek officials and Lockheed Martin.

Athens has also ordered 24 Rafales from Dassault but if its financial picture improves and America-Turkey relations remain strained, it may well turn to Lockheed for further aircraft. Portugal, a current F-16 operator, may be a minor target for Dassault or Eurofighter given its economy and lackadaisical approach to re-investing in its air force. But Switzerland’s example has shown that Lockheed’s stealth fighter is able to effectively show up and sell itself in unexpected places.

It has, for all intents and purposes pushed European fighter makers out of their own territory for at least the next couple decades. Commander of the Swiss Air Force Major General Peter Merz gestures in front of a F-35 A Lightning II . .

. [+] fighter jet during a media presentation at Emmen Air Base, central Switzerland, on March 24, 2022. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images With America’s NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) fighter program waiting in the wings – and possibly further along than publicly acknowledged – the only salve for European projects may be limits on Lockheed’s own capacity.

“Now, the big question;” Aboulafia says. “With F-35 demand justifying 180-200 jets per year, how long does it take Lockheed Martin and its suppliers to get past the current 150 or so per year that they’ve been able to reach?” Follow me on Twitter . Eric Tegler Editorial Standards Print Reprints & Permissions.