4 Numbers To Watch For This Weekend As The Climate Crisis Heats Up

Forbes Innovation Science 4 Numbers To Watch For This Weekend As The Climate Crisis Heats Up Marshall Shepherd Senior Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Following Jul 14, 2023, 03:36pm EDT | Press play to listen to this article! Got it! Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin MONTPELIER, VERMONT – JULY 11: People kayak up and down the flooded waters of Elm Street on July 11, . .

. [+] 2023 in Montpelier, Vermont. Up to eight inches of rain fell over 48 hours and residents were warned that Wrightsville Dam could reach capacity, forcing it to release more water that could impact the downtown area.

(Photo by Kylie Cooper/Getty Images) Getty Images Climate fatigue is a real thing. At this point, I could write an article every day about some weather-climate related extreme that makes me gasp. Once considered breaking news, such anomaly events are now compounded and seemingly more frequent.

As we transition into the second weekend of July, here are four numbers that I am watching closely this weekend as the climate crisis heats up. Weekend temperature in Death Valley The first number is the temperature in Death Valley, Calfornia. This location is known for having the highest, reliable air temperature measurement on Earth (129.

9 degrees F). A measurement of 131 degrees F was recorded in Tunisia, but questions about the accuracy of that 1931 reading disqualifies it as the official mark. Weather forecasters and some climate scientists are concerned that temperatures could exceed that record number this weekend.

Writing in his blog earlier in the week, University of California – Los Angeles climate scientist Daniel Swain warned, “One searing statistic: the official recording site in Death Valley has a decent chance of tying (or even) breaking its all-time record high temperature of 130F. ” Other parts of the U. S.

Southwest will also experience oppressive heat as strong ridging (a geeky weather term associated with high pressure) establishes itself. As the Washington Post Captial Weather Gang tweeted Friday, the all-time record high in Las Vegas (118 degrees F) could be broken. Water temperature off the coast of Florida and in the Gulf of Mexico Another number that I am watching this weekend is the water temperature in Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

Water temperatures in the middle to upper nineties are potentially devastating for coral reefs and a powder keg waiting to explode as we march towards the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Florida newspaper headlines are also warning of fish kills and algal blooms. MORE FOR YOU 131 Degrees—Death Valley Projected To Set Earth’s Modern Temperature Record Delhi Underwater As Torrential Rain Kills Dozens In India In Photos Tornadoes Floods And Scorching Heat Here s All The Extreme Weather That Occurred Just In The Past Week A recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) press release warned that about fifty percent of world oceans could meet criteria for a marine heatwave by the end of summer.

According to a NOAA website , “One commonly used metric defines a marine heatwave as an event where temperatures exceed the 90th percentile of 30-year historic values for five or more days in a row. ” Dillon Amaya is research scientist at the Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) and is the co-lead for NOAA’s marine heatwave experimental outlook. He said, “In our 32-year record, we have never seen such widespread marine heatwave conditions.

. . .

marine heatwaves are occurring across vast regions of the planet, including: the tropical North Atlantic, the Northeast Atlantic along the Iberian coast as far northward as Ireland and the UK, the equatorial Pacific, the Northeast Pacific, the Northwest Pacific in the Sea of Japan, the Southwest Pacific just southeast of New Zealand and the Western Indian Ocean southeast of Madagascar. ” In a normal year, only about ten percent of the oceans would meet the criteria for a marine heat wave according to Amaya. Marine heat wave forecasts through the end of summer.

NOAA Flood risk percentage The third number catching my eye this weeked is the risk percentage of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles (map below). Parts of the northeast including New York and Vermont experienced significant flooding this past week. Several inches of rainfall washed out roads, hampered commutes, and damaged infrastructure throughout the region.

I sit on the Board of Directors for the Institute for Sustainable Communities (ISC). The first day of our summer meeting, which was being held in Vermont on Tuesday, was hampered by the extraordinary rain event. Risk by Sunday of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance NOAA I was a NASA scientist for twelve years, but this is not rocket science.

A warming climate system accelerates evaporation and makes more water vapor available to rainstorms. It is pretty clear that the 190-year old Clausius-Clapeyron equation can explain a lot about contemporary rainstorms. Flooding, however, is not just about what falls from the sky.

Expanding areas of impervious surfaces and stormwater engineering designed for rainstorms of the past century are also amplifying the problem. MONTPELIER, VERMONT – JULY 11: Main Street is flooded on July 11, 2023 in Montpelier, Vermont. Up to .

. . [+] eight inches of rain fell over 48 hours and residents were warned that Wrightsville Dam could reach capacity, forcing it to release more water that could impact the downtown area.

(Photo by Kylie Cooper/Getty Images) Getty Images Metrics indicating smoke The fourth number to keep an eye on is any metric of smoke. The U. S.

has been in a relative lull, but more smoke is expected this weekend from wildfires in Canada. As of Friday, it was already evident on weather satellite imagery. The tweet below from the University of Wisconsin-Madison CIMSS site provides great perspecive on current and near-future status of vertically integrated smoke.

The aforementioned events are happening within the context of natural variability associated with summer. However, there is a climate change, El Nino-fueled steroid sitting on top of it. Follow me on Twitter .

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