The Excellence Of The Yankees’ Starting Rotation Shouldn’t Surprise You

SportsMoney The Excellence Of The Yankees’ Starting Rotation Shouldn’t Surprise You Tony Blengino Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. New! Follow this author to improve your content experience. Got it! Jun 17, 2022, 08:17am EDT | Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin New York Yankees starting pitcher Nestor Cortes throws during the first inning of the team’s .

. . [+] baseball game against the Minnesota Twins, Wednesday, June 8, 2022, in Minneapolis.

(AP Photo/Stacy Bengs) ASSOCIATED PRESS There are myriad reasons why the New York Yankees have been far and away the best club in the majors this season. I discussed a really big one, AL MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge, in this space earlier this week . As great as Judge has been, the Yanks have been just as good at preventing runs than scoring them, and their exceptional starting rotation has been a big reason why.

Showing up for work is a big part of getting the job done at the major league level – going into last night’s game, the Yankees’ big five starting pitchers had started 60 of their first 62 games, and all were among the exclusive group of 30 AL starters who had pitched enough innings to qualify for the AL ERA title. (Luis Severino was placed on the COVID-19 injured list Thursday, missing his scheduled start last evening). But this group is about oh so much more than just showing up.

By my count, there are three legit Cy Young candidates in the Yankee rotation, and the other two starters are easily better than league average. And we clearly should have seen this level of excellence as a distinct possibility entering the 2022 season. Gerrit Cole is the clear rotation anchor here, combining the quantity and quality required of a true Cy Young candidate.

He was my choice for AL Cy Young winner in 2021, based on my batted ball-based metric, “Tru” ERA-, which incorporates Adjusted Contact Score, the level of production a pitcher “should have” allowed based on the exit speed and launch angle of all batted balls allowed. While Cole has never been more than an adequate contact manager (and has often been worse), his K/BB profile and healthy innings load have generally been more than enough to compensate. Last year, he posted a 71 “Tru” ERA- to lead AL ERA qualifiers.

Somehow Cole has never won an actual Cy, but he has qualified for six ERA titles and is one of the few hurlers in the game that can be counted upon to make a run at the 200-inning mark. Most believe that he has struggled thus far in 2022, but that couldn’t be farther from the truth. More on that later.

But coming into this season, most assumed that he was the only ace-level starter in the Yankee rotation. MORE FOR YOU WWE Extreme Rules 2021 Results: Winners, News And Notes As Roman Reigns Beats The Demon The World’s Highest-Paid Soccer Players 2021: Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo Reclaims Top Spot From PSG’s Lionel Messi The Good, Bad And Ugly From The Green Bay Packers’ Win Over The San Francisco 49ers But what about Luis Severino? He was an absolute stud in 2017-18, but a non-factor the next three seasons due to Tommy John surgery as well as shoulder and groin issues. The stuff and athleticism remained intact, so why couldn’t a healthy Severino ascend to at least his previous heights in his age-28 season? What about Nestor Cortes? His stuff doesn’t measure up to that of your typical major league ace, but at any given moment, there are a number of funky southpaws thriving at the major league level.

He throws tons of strikes, induces a ton of pop ups, and posted a very solid 82 “Tru” ERA- in 2021. Why couldn’t he do the same or better in his first full major league season at age 27? And what about Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery? Taillon was a former top of the draft phenom with the Pirates who was waylaid by a pair of Tommy John surgeries in addition to ankle surgery. Montgomery also had his career placed on hold by Tommy John surgery back in 2018.

Both had successful rehabs, clawed their way back into the Yankee rotation, and most importantly, showcased Grade A pitches at the MLB level last season. In the most recent installment of my annual Pitch Grades series, Montgomery got “A” grades for both his changeup and curve ball, while Taillon got an “A+” for his four-seam fastball. Why couldn’t they keep up that solid work over a full season at ages 30 and 29, respectively? What has happened in 2022 has been a near best-case scenario but it clearly could have been envisioned.

Let’s briefly break down the performance of each of the Big Five in descending order of excellence: Cortes – 66 “Tru” ERA-, 10. 5 “Tru” Runs Above Average – Cortes best combines innings volume and per-inning quality among this group. The top three have comparable K/BB profiles, but Cortes and Severino have posted the best Adjusted Contact Scores (80), and Cortes has thrown materially more innings than Severino.

The lefty has dramatically cut his fly ball rate from last season, and has managed fly ball authority (69 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) better than all of his rotation-mates save Severino. Severino – 63 “Tru” ERA-, 10. 0 TPRAA – The kid is back, and let’s hope his current stay on the COVID-19 IL is a short one.

His K/BB profile is right in there with Cortes and Cole, and his contact management performance has been the best of this group. His 63 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is the best among them, and his 91. 8 mph average liner exit speed allowed is also quite exceptional.

His upside in the K/BB and Contact Management areas are Cy Young-worthy – only his durability is in question. Cole – 71 “Tru” ERA-, 9. 4 TPRAA – Yup, his so-called present struggles are a mirage.

He’s been incredibly unlucky on line drives (. 818 AVG-1. 030 SLG allowed compared to league average of .

644 AVG-. 811 SLG). He’s never been much of a contact manager, but with his durability and K/BB profile, he doesn’t need to be.

And while Cortes and Severino will either be entering new innings bulk terrain for the first time or revisiting it after a long absence, this is old hat for Cole. He’ll be there at the end, you can bet on it. Taillon – 80 “Tru” ERA-.

6. 0 TPRAA – Now for the two guys who don’t strike out the yard, and thus have materially less margin for error. Neither Taillon nor Montgomery walk anyone, and both have made some adjustments that have nudged them from average to above average in the contact management area.

To that end, Taillon has dramatically dropped his fly ball rate while maintaining a significant pop-up tendency. As a result, his Adjusted Contact Score has dropped from 96 in 2021 to 88 in 2022, driving his rise into the clearly above average group of AL starters. Montgomery – 84 “Tru” ERA-, 4.

7 TPRAA – Montgomery’s K/BB profile is almost identical to Taillon’s. He’s been a bit lucky on batted balls this season (73 Unadjusted vs. 90 Adjusted Contact Score), but that adjusted mark is still a nice step up from 2021 (99).

He’s raised his grounder rate substantially this season, and has absolutely muffled line drive contact – his 89. 1 mph average liner exit speed allowed is off of the charts low. Not a bad #4-5 starter.

So can these guys keep it up? Qualitatively, sure. Cole could be even better as the season unfolds, and the other four have recently established fundamental batted ball-based strengths that can be built upon. Quantitatively? Well, there’s the rub.

Cortes, Severino, Taillon and Montgomery have combined to qualify for exactly three ERA titles in their respective careers (Taillon in 2018, Severino in 2017-18). Odds are that all five are not going to get to the 162-inning mark this season. But if Cole can do his typical ironman thing while the other four rack up somewhere between 135-180 high-quality innings, that will do just fine.

Don’t expect the Yankees and their rotation keep up their current torrid pace, but there’s no reason that this group can’t win 100+ games and be poised for a deep playoff run. Follow me on Twitter . Tony Blengino Editorial Standards Print Reprints & Permissions.