Feeling the Squeeze: Amidst Category Fragmentation, Juice Brands Seek New Frontiers

For juice makers today, success is where you squeeze it. Amidst a fractured market, the landscape can understandably appear in flux. Cast off from the CPG titans, the likes of Tropicana, Evolution Fresh and Suja are still settling into their new homes inside larger private equity portfolios.

Family friendly brands like Simply and Sunny D are dabbling in alcohol, while shot specialists KOR, Sofresco and So Good So You continue to command top dollar even as shoppers feel the pain of rising retail prices. And that’s not even touching on lemonade, where sales numbers show that ongoing concerns over sugar content that have knocked loose juice’s health halo don’t seem to matter at all. In other words, the juice category feels more open and fragmented than in past years, a set of conditions that heightens both opportunity and risk.

“Juice purchase drivers can seem to come from clashing ends of the motivation spectrum – wellness and enjoyment – demonstrating that juice brands of any type can take both paths to reach the widest audience through messages of simple formulations, taste, flavor and even texture,” said Adriana Chychula, Mintel Consumer Food and Drink Analyst. Within the aseptic, shelf-stable juice set in MULO (including c-stores), total dollar sales rose nearly 14% in the 52-week period ending August 13, 2023, according to retail data provider Circana. That sales growth was somewhat offset by significant volume declines among the top three juice drinks performers – Capri Sun, Kool Aid, and Honest Kids – which all ramped up prices nearly 20% in the past year.

Pure aseptic juices fared slightly better with sales increasing 13. 6% and pricing growth a bit lower at 13. 4% while volumes were flat.

Coconut water category leader Vita Coco maintains a strong lead in the set with over $291 million in total dollar sales; in contrast, category runner-ups Apple & Eve and Juicy Juice have brought in nearly $89 million and $75 million, respectively. Over in the shelf-stable bottled juice market, volume growth also took a nosedive, dropping 5. 6% as the segment saw positive pricing actions in the low double-digits (+12.

7%). Total dollar sales of bottled fruit drinks – which includes brands like Snapple, Hawaiian Punch, Bai, V8 and Sunny D – rose 5. 6% but volumes dropped over 7% as the subset took average price increases north of 13.

7% . As for the OG pure juice – orange juice – its pandemic-revived immune-supporting health halo continues to wane. Across shelf-stable, refrigerated and even concentrated formats OJ saw sales and volumes decline while pricing continue to rise.

The leading four branded refrigerated orange juice producers – Tropicana, Simply, Florida’s Natural and Minute Maid – all saw sales decline over the past year. However, among the ambient-temp bottled juices there may be a rising star. Cherry juice, known for its sleep support attributes, was the only subcategory in the shelf-stable, bottled category to notch positive gains in all key metrics: category sales increased nearly 29%, volumes grew 17% and prices increased at a rate of 5.

6%. R. W.

Kundesen’s cherry juice remains in the lead with nearly double the market share than the second-in-command private label cherry juice players. But Antioxidant Solution’s bottled cherry liquid is quickly rising – sales grew 2057. 5% to over $5 million, volume growth was up 3028.

2% while prices dropped 31% in the past year. Further supporting the trend-toward-cherry: juice category leader Snapple introduced its Earth Elements flavor this year, featuring cherry and fig juice blended with a black tea base. Refrigerated juice sales growth is also seemingly on-par with the category trends and it’s clear that consumers continue to prioritize price when making purchasing decisions, as the category’s average dollar sales (-0.

5%) and volumes (-8. 4%) declined and prices went up (+8. 7%).

Juice drink dollar sales growth was flat and volume dropped over 8% as prices increased 8. 7%. Pure fruit juice saw modest results with sales increasing 6.

5% and units declining only 1% as prices rose to an average of $2. 61 (+7. 6%).

Fruit juice blends also managed to notch positive sales gains (+2. 6%) but saw volumes drop off by about 1%. That momentum is taking contributions from the shot space, with probiotic shot maker So Good So You reporting a 48% sales increase and its volume growth is keeping pace at the same rate (+48%) as the brand’s pricing remains flat.

“Some 100% options stretch their lead with simplicity; but blended formats and hybrid innovations like sparkling juices or plant waters subtly chip away at ‘pure’ fruit juice,” said Chychula. “100% juices clearly symbolize a sense of purity to consumers, contributing to securing purchase from the largest share of juice drinkers in the cluttered juice aisle. ” In the emerging juice brand arena, there has been a bit of consolidation.

In October 2022, Suja Organic acquired Vive Organics in a deal it said at the time would help secure its position as a juice shot leader. Across Suja’s portfolio – which spans fruit juice, juice drinks and blended juices – this past year price increases of about 8% correspond with fairly substantial volume declines. Volume and sales of its juice drinks and blended formats dropped by 25% and 18%, respectively, while its leading fruit juice segment saw 4.

2% volume declines and a low-single digit growth rate. Vive Organic’s average pricing fell over 12% this year and during that period, sales increased nearly 112% to over $10 million and volume growth kicked up 142%. The average consumer either sees juice with a health halo or with a sugary silhouette, according to a recent report from Mintel.

But this year has seen several large juice brands embrace alcohol (or lack thereof) as a means of expanding outside the category’s traditional boundaries via RTD cocktails, mixers and the emerging non-alcoholic segment. ​​“As younger consumers age, juices of all types can remain on the shopping list with messaging that conveys simplicity, even in blended and adapted juices when coupled with taste and flavor positioning and innovation that inspires use occasions beyond breakfast,” said Chychula. “Younger adults are more likely to drink juice as a snack, a sweet treat, or mixed with other non-alcoholic beverages and as a mixer with alcoholic beverages.

” Coca-Cola’s reinvention of Simply as an alcohol-friendly platform exemplifies the trend. Following the successful launch of Simply Spiked via its partnership with Molson Coors, Coca Cola kept the party going and introduced Simply Mixology, a new juice line targeted for at-home cocktail prep, in three SKUs – Strawberry Guava Mojito, Lime Margarita and Peach Sour. The line launched in January and at the time, Coke said in a press release that the Simply brand was also approaching another milestone: $2 billion in annual retail sales.

According to James Quincey, Coke’s chairman and CEO, during an earnings call with investors, Simply Mixology brings “both affordability and premiumization” to the mixer space and brand identity. That direction has provided a clearer distinction from Coke’s other juice brands like Minute Maid, which extended its juice-based, Gen Z-targeting Agua Fresca line with a new 52 oz. Pineapple Horchata flavor this year.

Elsewhere, farming cooperative-owned Ocean Spray is teaming up with Absolut and Pernod Ricard USA to launch a sparkling Cape Codder (cranberry juice and vodka) in 12 oz. cans at 4. 5% ABV.

Will the nearly 100-year-old juice maker’s “real juice credentials” make a difference in the alcohol category, as it seems to think? Although the product won’t launch until next year, the duo is already working on integrated co-packing and innovations to go deeper into the RTD cocktails. After watching innovations built around energy or MCTs fail to catch fire, Vita Coco is taking an even bigger swing with its boozy RTD collaboration with Diageo’s Captain Morgan rum, Vita Coco Spiked. During an earnings call in August, Vita Coco co-founder and executive chairman Mike Kirban said the company is looking to drive penetration of its canned coconut juices in the c-store channel.

Kirban believes those efforts will help coconut juice become common “at-home mixers” and expand consumption occasions. According to recent data from Numerator, household penetration for coconut water sits around 22% compared to cranberry juice at 55% and over 80% for orange juice. At least one big name is standing pat, though: Tropicana’s sole innovation this year was the relatively safe three-SKU Tropicana Zero Sugar, its first new launch since its acquisition by private equity firm PAI Partners from PepsiCo in 2021.

Though novel opportunities as well as challenges have impacted the juice set, a handful of startups have taken aim at solving chronic category challenges such as the refrigerated variety’s naturally short shelf-life and the associated challenges of cold-chain shipping. San Francisco-based Happy Moose Juice announced it acquired its distressed, local cold storage partner back in April. While co-founder and CEO Ryan Armistead said the newly-acquired business will remain a separate entity, he believes the realized impact of having an in-house logistics provider will benefit the juice business’ bottom line over the long haul.

According to Armistead, the team also sees a large opportunity in serving startup perishable food and beverage brands with the new business by building out “a suite of different logistical services” ranging from direct-to-consumer mail order fulfillment, connecting brands to distributors and fulfilling both local and cross-country deliveries. He noted that another storage facility nearby had recently been purchased by a large conglomerate for their own use, further reducing cold storage access for emerging brands. “It feels like there’s also this really sweet place where we can be the champion for small perishable food businesses in San Francisco and provide these value-added services that they need and don’t really exist elsewhere,” said Armistead.

“That’s the exciting part is providing this critical service for other businesses like ours – that feels important and significant. ” As the team continues to learn the ins-and-outs of cold-chain logistics, Armistead said it is also looking to reduce the risk of Happy Moose spoilage. The brand recently closed some initial deals contributing to a small Series C fundraise, he said, and is working on slight product reformulations with the goal of extending the shelf life of its juices.

In turn, Armistead expects having logistics on-hand, and a lower risk product will create a solid margin cost structure as both businesses continue to expand. Juice maker Uncle Matt’s is also working to assert more control over manufacturing. Earlier this month, the two-decade old company announced it was making the leap from copackers to self-bottling after purchasing a new facility it expects to be operational by the end of the year.

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