IN-DEPTH: Pakistan–China Axis Behind Fresh Terror Attacks In India’s Kashmir Region: Expert

Terrorists killed four Indian soldiers on Dec. 21 in an ambush in India’s Poonch-Rajouri region, on its northwestern border with Pakistan. The difficult, densely forested Himalayan terrain in Jammu and Kashmir has recently seen an intensified terrorist presence and anti-India operations.

It was the sixth attack on the Indian military forces in the region since October 2021, reported the Hindustan Times. India Today reported on Monday that New Delhi plans to increase troop strength on this front to strengthen its counter-terrorism operations. A new brigade of troops was brought in a few months ago and another is scheduled to be brought in soon.

An Indian counter-terrorism expert and the author of a new book on terrorism in the region told The Epoch Times that behind the increasing attacks is the strengthening China-Pakistan axis. “After Galwan, India moved a portion of its battle-hardened, premier counterinsurgency troops, [the] Rashtriya Rifles. This has brought a huge chunk of Indian forces on the eastern border [with China],” said Abhinav Pandya, author of the just-released book “Terror Financing in Kashmir” (Routledge, Taylor and Francis).

The Rashtriya Rifles (RR) is a special counter-insurgency force deployed on India’s northern borders with Pakistan in the west and China in the east. The bloody Galwan conflict in the trans-Himalayan altitudes of Ladakh left 20 Indian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese dead in June 2020. The aftermath of the event saw fresh military build-up on both sides.

“The Chinese are already feeling the heat after Galwan. They have failed in all their pressure tactics, psy-wars and propaganda wars, so now they have used their proxy, Pakistan, to intensify terrorism in Poonch Rajouri, so that RR troops are shifted back to [the] Poonch-Rajouri region [from the Ladakh border],” said Mr. Pandya.

IN-DEPTH: India’s Highest Court Upholds Contentious Kashmir Reorganization in What Experts Call a Geopolitical Win Trudeau Says He Disclosed Nijjar Death Allegations to ‘Put a Chill’ on India The developing scenario is tough because the terrain is mountainous, with natural caves that give cover to terrorists. This helps them to plan and conduct surprise attacks and inflict more casualties. Mr.

Pandya said the enhanced operations and the way they are being conducted indicate the terrorists have “excellent intelligence” on the movement of Indian armed personnel in the area. “Apart from that, these attacks also show that some of these militants are highly trained. They have rigorous training in jungle warfare, close-combat drills, and some of them may be veterans in the Pakistani army, also which cannot be ruled out,” according to Mr.

Pandya, who is the CEO of the Usanas Foundation, an India-based security affairs think tank. Based on Mr. Pandya’s sources, the training level of these terrorists is very different—they are more militarily advanced than what was earlier visible in the local terrorists of Kashmir.

“Most of them are foreign terrorists,” he said. “Militants have been found with Chinese weapons—pistols, grenades and AK47s. But we have never openly said that China is supporting terrorism in Kashmir.

” Mr. Pandya said it has long been China’s policy to support proxy actors against India. This ushered in a reciprocal change in China’s policy towards India.

Beijing now has a “long-term vision” that involves keeping India militarily distracted, according to Mr. Pandya. “After Galwan, Indian security forces, strategic community, and intelligence brass have started thinking in terms of China as a main threat.

Since then, India has been making appropriate preparations in war, strategy, and intelligence operations,” he said. “This has made China uncomfortable. They want to counter this new thinking and initiatives by keeping India busy, overwhelmed, and preoccupied with counter-insurgency ops.

” Mr. Pandya claimed the geo-political situation in the region and its impact on the terrorist ecosystem has been reciprocally changing. While India is taking a tougher stance against terrorism and radicalization, the China–Pakistan axis is also getting stronger.

“India has mentally prepared itself for a 2. 5 war now. Chinese investments in dual-use infrastructure, and [its] edge in .

. . asymmetric warfare, on account of its robust ties with Pakistan, [are] alarming India.

India needs to think long-term, and imagine all possible scenarios of sabotage, subversion, and war,” he said. While India’s border issues will undoubtedly sway voter behavior in the upcoming election, conversely, who rules the country next will impact India’s foreign policy, including Indo-China relations. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during whose tenure Galwan happened, is known for taking assertive stands against Chinese aggression on the border.

Mr. Pandya said the Chinese regime is likely to maneuver the border situation, including cross-border infiltration along Pakistan’s manned border, to influence Indian voters. “China also wants to discredit the current Modi government in the backdrop of the 2024 national elections.

Beijing and Pakistan also want to puncture the narrative that the [Kashmir] valley is moving towards peace and prosperity after [the Article] 370 abrogation,” said Mr. Pandya. Four years ago, India split the former state of Jammu and Kashmir into two federally governed territories—one, Jammu-Kashmir, bordering Pakistan, and the other, Ladakh, bordering China.

India did so by abolishing the decades-old Article 370 of its Constitution, which resulted from the 1947 treaty of accession between the just-born Indian nation and the Maharaja of what was then Jammu and Kashmir. When the Indian government politically reorganized the strategically sensitive state, Pakistan opposed the abolition of Article 370. In turn, China opposed the new federal identity of Ladakh as “unacceptable,” because it controls certain territory in the region that India claims under the 1947 accession treaty.

The Galwan conflict happened exactly one year after Article 370’s abrogation. The conflict escalated over the construction of Chinese infrastructure in Indian-claimed territory. Mr.

Pandya said it has been increasingly reported that China has refurbished airfields and built new airfields in the Skardu area of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Skardu falls in the larger region of Gilgit-Baltistan, which India claims under the 1947 treaty of accession and through which China is building its flagship BRI project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. “They are investing majorly in border infrastructure like roads and tertiary roads to enhance the connectivity to the border.

They are building helipads near military bases. They are creating a huge dual-use infrastructure. In the PoK [Pakistan occupied Kashmir], Chinese officers have been found in Lashkar and terrorist camps,” he said.

Lashkar-e-Taiba is an Islamist militant group particularly active in the Kashmir region. .